Month: January 2021

Back to Print: 1990 AutoWeek issue predicts the collector car future

RichardReina Print material , ,

It’s obvious from all my blog posts covering automotive auctions from Mecum, Carlisle, RM Sotheby’s, and others, that I enjoy the collector car auction experience. Unlike classified ads, auction results provide an in-the-moment, real-world snapshot of what cars sell for. Part of the auction education is to learn about values. Price guides are great, but they’re numbers on a page or a screen. One can argue that a car at auction sold for too much or too little, but one can’t argue that a seller was willing to let it go at a certain price, or that a buyer was willing to pay a certain price.

Several friends of mine who are interested in the old car hobby have asked me about values rising over time, or put another way, “what can I buy today that I’ll make money on tomorrow?” They expect me to gaze into my crystal ball and spit out an answer. It might be possible to make the general statement that “all special interest cars appreciate over time”. However, it you’ve been at this long enough, and I know that many of my readers have, we’ve learned some hard lessons about vehicles and values.

Values of cars from the decade of the 1950s have peaked and have slid back, because the generation which grew up with them is dying off. Cars which are purchased as 100-point show cars and are then driven or allowed to deteriorate will decline in value. Sometimes, what’s hot today has simply cooled off by next month.

Conversely, we baby boomers have watched in amazement as cars from the ‘80s and ‘90s (which to us are “just used cars”) are being snapped up, some at surprisingly high prices, by the next generation of collectors. One famous scribe, who shall not be cited by name, proclaimed 20 years ago that “Japanese cars will NEVER become collectible!” He’s eating his words today as 1st gen Datsun Z cars, 4th gen Toyota Supras, and Acura NSXs trade for prices approaching or exceeding six figures.

My answer to my colleagues about my crystal ball? I tell them that my crystal ball shattered when the Ouija board fell off its shelf and knocked it to the ground.

Instead of a crystal ball, it’s more fun to travel back in time and see what was predicted about collector car values. I have the May 21, 1990 issue of AutoWeek magazine, its headline blaring “1990 Old Car Issue: Bring ‘em Back To Drive; A users’ guide to finding, buying and enjoying collectible cars”. I believe this 1990 edition was the first in what would become an annual series for AutoWeek, at least for most of the rest of the decade (I have two later examples in my collection). Let peruse the pages and see how right and how wrong they were.

The lead article, “Get ‘Em While They’re Cold”, suggests taking a long hard look at cars from the 1980s, buying them while they’re cheap, and then riding the wave of escalating values. By the way, this concept of buying cars which are 10 to 20 years old, at the bottom of their depreciation cycle, and then (hopefully) watching their values rise has really grown legs in recent decades.

A sample of the featured cars and their 1990 values, include:

  • 1986 Corvette Roadster, for about $25,000
  • 1982-1985 Buick Riviera convertible, many at less than $10,000
  • 1985-1988 Fiero, at anywhere from $6,000 to $16,000 depending on equipment
  • 1981-1983 Imperial, and I quote: “Current prices are in the $4,000 to $6,000 range, so it doesn’t take a Donald Trump to see the profit potential….”
  • 1984-1986 Mustang SVO, with “prices all over the map”

The featured story and cover car, about one man’s obsession with obtaining and restoring the 1938 BMW328 which won the 1940 Mille Miglia, is a delightful human interest tale of overcoming many setbacks before eventually triumphing. But there’s no mention of actual dollars spent. To his credit, even with the article implying that this BMW might be worth $2 million (remember, this was written in 1990), the owner said “Of course I’ll drive it, ‘cause that’s what it is – a car…. I just can’t understand the way some people think. The thought of turning a car into a $2-million floor lamp makes me sick”.

The final series of articles in this issue highlight 3 popular collectibles: the MGA, the Porsche 356, and the Jaguar XKE, also known as the E-Type. For two of these, I’ve captured AutoWeek’s pricing for a 90-point car. Just to keep things in perspective, Google reports that the 1990 average new-car price was $15,500, and the median household income was $35,400.

 

My January 2021 edition of CPI (Cars of Particular Interest) Price Guide shows a 1960 Porsche 356B S-90 Roadster worth $198,000 in excellent condition, and a 1967 Jaguar XKE roadster (OTS) worth $302,000 in excellent condition. Now that’s what I call appreciation!

Will 2021 be the Year of the Electric Pickup Truck?

RichardReina Current events

Happy 2021! After a longer-than-expected break from blogging during this holiday season, I’m back! It’s too obvious to state that my fellow car hobbyists and I are all hoping for better things this year, but I’ll say it anyway. With fingers crossed (and with planned vaccines in my arm), I’ve begun to make plans to attend various shows and events in the next few months, provided that they’re still on the calendar. These events include:

If even just two out of five of these events manage to happen AND if I feel safe enough to attend, it will be a win. Right now, I’m practicing patience and hoping for the best, as it’s all I can do.

In the meantime, I’m going to use this blog in a way that I haven’t done before, which is to promote some of the ‘professional’ writing that I’ve been doing these past few years. A current auto industry topic which I’ve been closely following and which I personally find fascinating is electric vehicles (EVs). I published a blog post a few months back about my in-person experiences with the Ford Mustang Mach-E. Since then, the Ford Motor Company has revealed that their annual production supply of 50,000 is “spoken for”. That doesn’t mean that there’s a retail name attached to every unit, as many may have been ordered by dealers for stock. Still, this is a tremendous achievement, given how reluctant the American public has been to embrace EVs (except for Tesla).

The year 2021 may be “the year of the electric pickup truck”. Most folks know how popular full-size pickups are in the U.S., with the Ford, Chevrolet, and Ram trucks occupying the #1, #2, and #3 sales slots for years now. With only months to go before the Tesla CyberTruck, Rivian R1T pickup, and GMC Hummer EV pickup are launched, the perfect storm may be brewing as traditional truck buyers check out the EV competition. (And don’t downplay the competition: the Launch Editions of both the Rivian and the Hummer are sold out.)

This article below was penned by me on behalf of my employer, and was published on the excellent website www.automoblog.net. Give it a read-through, and add a comment. I’d be more than happy to entertain your opinion, even if (especially if) you completely disagree.

https://www.automoblog.net/2021/01/22/will-2021-be-the-year-of-the-ev/

New Truck Launches & Big Business Partnerships Indicate a Strong Year Ahead for EV Adoption

According to Allied Market Research, the global vehicle electrification market is projected to reach $140.29 billion by 2027. Consumer interest in electric vehicles (EVs) has grown steadily since the Nissan Leaf, the longest-selling EV nameplate still available today (the Leaf was launched just over 10 years ago). The current EV market is much more diverse, with offerings available from legacy manufacturers, industry disruptors (like Tesla), and start-ups.

Flashy new model launches have sent pre-sale orders through the roof. Transportation and utility companies that own thousands of fleet vehicles have begun shifting to electrified platforms. Governments worldwide have engaged in legislative and regulatory actions that could boost EV manufacturing and clean transportation infrastructure. With all this activity, how does widespread EV adoption look in 2021? Let’s take a closer look.

Table of Contents

Trucks & SUVs: The Exciting & Unexpected

Will Fuel Prices Impact EV Sales?

Commercial & Industrial Adoption

Shifting Political Factors

Looking Ahead

Trucks & SUVs: The Exciting & Unexpected

In the United States currently, 22 out of 38 major auto brands offer at least one EV model. Up to 50 new models are anticipated to enter the market in the next two to three years. In recent months, EV launches have generated big headlines, particularly truck and SUV models based on ground-up designs. These launches have broken the mold of compact EVs based on existing internal combustion engine (ICE) platforms.

Pickups will see a lot of attention this year. While met with mockery upon launch, Tesla’s CyberTruck is set to begin production in late 2021. Rivian, which has received investment from Ford and Amazon, is showcasing its R1T EV pickup, including a sold-out Launch Edition due in June. And GMC made a splash with the Hummer’s return as an EV. The Edition 1 (starting at a whopping $112,595!) has sold out of its first-year production run of 10,000, although lower-priced models will be introduced from now through spring 2024.

In a turn of events that shocked many car enthusiasts, Ford’s Mustang Mach-E, an all-electric SUV that’s giving Tesla a run for its money, was awarded the North American Utility Vehicle of the Year for 2021. What’s more, the New York Times recently reported that Ford has already taken orders for all 50,000 of the Mach-Es it plans to produce in 2021. Another notable mention: the pre-orders for the launch edition of Volkswagen’s ID.4 electric SUV have already sold out.

Will Fuel Prices Impact EV Sales?

Even with popular models generating buzz and selling out quickly, a few things need to change to tip the EV sales scale more significantly in the coming years, starting with fuel prices.

Since 2014, fuel prices have been on a gradual decline, averaging between $2.00 and 2.50 per gallon between 2016 and 2019. They are presently at a 30-year national low, meaning buyers don’t necessarily have to consider fuel economy a top factor when shopping for a new vehicle. Nothing illustrates this point better than how full-size trucks from the domestic Big Three continue to hold the first, second, and third positions in the sales race. Mid- and full-size SUVs, many with large six- and eight-cylinder engines, are also selling well.

Battery technology has improved by leaps and bounds, with many newer EVs boasting 200- and 300-mile driving ranges. But for drivers unfamiliar with EVs, the concept of “range anxiety” weighs heavily on any purchase decision. Yes, your vehicle will be able to support your daily commute with its battery capacity and an overnight recharge at home. But will you have adequate access to charging stations during a multi-state road trip? In many parts of the country, the lack of charging infrastructure poses a significant challenge that might push consumers away from fully electric models.

Commercial & Industrial Adoption

Regardless of how many consumers are willing to take their own EV on a family road trip, many of the world’s largest companies are already integrating EVs into their business models. Unsurprisingly, Amazon is among the first to make moves in this direction. Amazon announced a plan to bring custom electric delivery vehicles, manufactured by Rivian, to the roads by the thousands over the next decade. The first of these are expected to roll out this year.

Everyone shops for everything online these days. This became even more true when COVID-19 cut off access to brick-and-mortar retail for many. So, it should come as no surprise that major automakers, including GM and Ford, are looking to expand their commercial delivery solutions. Potential partners, such as FedEx, have expressed a desire to migrate to electric fleets for moving consumer goods. As of this writing, GM is working on a pilot program with FedEX to introduce lightweight, electric vans complete with the latest safety, diagnostics, and route optimization technology.

Moving away from fleet management and the supply chain, a new commercial market for EVs has emerged that could tip the scales in favor of these technologies. That new and emerging market is utility and construction management. For instance, Lordstown Motors, an EV startup, recently announced it has more than 100,000 orders for its Endurance electric truck. Lordstown is targeting utility companies and other commercial entities, rather than individual consumers, with this rollout.

With more companies and municipalities working toward ambitious emissions goals, we can expect to see more EV vans, trucks, and SUVs pop up for commercial use in the coming years.

Shifting Political Factors

We can’t have a discussion of EVs or any clean energy technologies in 2021 without mentioning the changing political landscape. President Joe Biden entered office with an ambitious climate plan that could enable broader adoption of EVs in the coming years. It’s still far too early to tell how these actions will play out but there are already a few notable storylines the automotive industry has its eye on.

This includes a plan to install 50,000 EV charging stations, capable of covering an estimated 57 percent of charging needs by 2030. Additionally, Jennifer Granholm, President Biden’s nominee for Energy Secretary who secured $1.35 billion in federal funding for EV and battery development as governor of Michigan, is expected to help lead U.S. efforts to compete with China in the EV sector.

Looking Ahead

Following the unpredictability of 2020, many have started 2021 with high hopes. Even without knowing how the political and economic landscape might boost these technologies, there’s no doubt that EVs have gained serious momentum. More models are available than ever before and manufacturers are working hard to expand the market into the lucrative pickup and SUV categories, making it possible to find an EV that suits any lifestyle.

Elsewhere, corporations and commercial entities recognize that pivoting to electric transportation solutions is a crucial piece in broader clean energy and low-emissions initiatives. Of course, other factors and market forces could change things at the drop of a hat. While it’s too soon to declare 2021 a breakout year for EVs, there will be plenty for consumers and industry experts to keep an eye on in the coming months!